Book Project Summary

Does democracy reinforce or undermine alliance credibility? I address this longstanding debate in my ongoing book project by explaining when democracies make strong, weak, or volatile commitments. I argue that coalitions of economic, security and political elites determine democratic commitment. Robust elite coalitions help alliance supporters win power and constrain alliance skeptics. Each group in the coalition supports alliance commitment for different reasons, creating a form of “log-rolling for alliances.” Weak coalitions leave alliances vulnerable to leadership turnover and malleable public opinion.

The book then tests the argument with diverse evidence. First, I will test the relationship between democracy and credibility with a new measure of alliance credibility. The credibility measure draws on expert surveys and measurement modeling. Other chapters use text analyses on elite rhetoric, a survey of U.S. military soldiers and veterans, and historic public opinion data to track economic, security and political elite coalitions.